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By Bruce L. Reynolds

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Sample text

T h e s u c c e s s i n o n e case does n o t carry over t o t h e other. T h e theoretical f r a m e w o r k suggested in t h i s p a p e r is s o m e w h a t m o r e successful i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e C h i n e s e d a t a f r o m 1952 t o 1 9 8 3 t h a n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d a t a f r o m 1 9 2 2 t o 1 9 5 3 . T h e m o d e l for s h o r t - r u n c h a n g e s in log p r i c e is m o r e s a t i s f a c t o r y , a n d t h e s t a b i l i t y o f a l o n g r u n r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e p r i c e level a n d t h e m o n e y - o u t p u t r a t i o is b e t t e r e s t a b l i s h e d for C h i n a t h a n for t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

341 (8) T h e coefficient o f In Pt_x is significant. T o u s e E q . (8) for e x p l a i n i n g t h e level In Ρ r a t h e r t h a n t h e difference Δ In P, t h e coefficient o f In Pt-X w o u l d b e (1 2 — 0 . 5 0 5 4 ) o r 0 . 4 9 4 6 , a n d R w o u l d b e h i g h e r . A l t h o u g h (8) is a n i m p r o v e m e n t o v e r (7), it still l e a v e s a p o s i t i v e serial c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s a s s e e n in t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n statistic. T o p u r s u e t h e s e c o n d a p p r o a c h , w e a t t e m p t t o e x p l a i n Δ In Ρ b y Δ l n ( M / y).

2 R is l o w e r i n E q . (9) t h a n i n E q . (8), b u t t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n statistic s h o w s less p o s i t i v e serial c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s . T o e s t a b l i s h a m o r e satisfactory lag s t r u c t u r e , w e e m p l o y t h e m o d e l i n g t e c h n i q u e s o f e r r o r c o r r e c t i o n a n d cointegration. Engle a n d Granger (1987) provide a n exposition of these techn i q u e s . I will r e v i e w briefly t h e e s s e n t i a l i d e a s b e f o r e a p p l y i n g t h e m t o t h e Chinese data.

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